Welcome to the China CITIC Bank International.

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Hong Kong's first quarterly leading index revealing the changes in Hong Kong's banking service demand from companies and individuals from mainland China.

4Q2018

The 4Q2018 CNCBI Cross-border Banking Demand Index falls 0.3 further to 56.0. Under the impact of the China-US trade war, the Corporate Demand Index weakens further with a steeper fall of 0.4 (vs 3Q2018’s 0.3) whereas the Individuals Demand Index bounces back from last quarter’s plunge and stabilises at 63.1.

Six of the nine corporate demand sub-indices fall, while two rise and one stays put. Apart from expectation of regulatory looseness and derivative products, all of the six falling sub-indices are financing-oriented. These include loans, trade finance, structured finance and bond issuance, which log a decline of 1.0, 0.7, 0.7 and 0.5 respectively. Service-oriented sub-indices of asset management & financial consultancy and settlement & cash management gain 1.6 and 0.1 respectively while currency transactions remains unchanged.

Regarding individuals’ cross-border demand, most of the sub-indices rebound with credit cards posting the biggest leap of 2.9 while insurance products gains 1.2, and currency transactions and immigration & education services 0.9 and 0.5 respectively whereas mortgage & personal loans loses 2.2 and financial investment 0.9.

In 4Q2018, mainland corporations’ and individuals’ expectation of regulatory looseness sub-indices drop 0.4 and 2.8 to 47.7 and 47.5 respectively.

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