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Hong Kong's first quarterly leading index revealing the changes in Hong Kong's banking service demand from companies and individuals from mainland China.

3Q2018

The 3Q2018 CNCBI Cross-border Banking Demand Index drops 0.6 on the quarter to 56.3. Under the impact of the blazing China-US trade tensions and reversal of RMB appreciation, mainland corporations and individuals’ going out confidence was dampened and resultantly overall cross-border demand softens. The Corporate Demand Index falls 0.3 further to last quarter’s decline of 0.2, standing at 54.6. The Individuals Demand Index, meanwhile, drops 1.5 to 63.0 after a two-quarter rise.

Five of the eight service- or product-related corporate demand sub-indices fall as the remaining sub-indices rise. While asset management & financial consultancy logs the biggest decline of 1.8, currency transactions, settlement & cash management, loans and structured finance drop by a smaller margin of less than 1.0. Of the three rising sub-indices, trade finance posts the biggest leap of 1.7 while derivative products and bond issuance rise by only 0.2.

Regarding individuals’ cross-border demand, the six service- or product-related sub-indices drop significantly with credit cards showing the biggest decline of 4.6 while mortgage & personal loans also drops 1.9 as financial investment, insurance products, currency transactions, and immigration & education services, drop by a margin of 1.0 to 1.4.

As regards the sub-index of expectation of regulatory looseness, the corporate and individuals sub-indices drop 1.3 and 1.1 respectively to 48.1 and 50.3.

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